Thursday, March 3, 2011

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200 years of return on U.S. government bonds


(click to enlarge)
Magnificent graphic research of SG via Big Picture:

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

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Tuesday, March 1, 2011

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The ORNANE

Is this a new product? No, not really. It is a simple variant of convertible bonds, that is called in France, the ocean (see our previous post http://investmentbankerparis.blogspot.com/2010/11/vive-les-emissions dobligations.html-) which is currently a very popular product investors lack of emissions.

emissions of the Convertible Bonds have been made in recent months, two property companies (Silic and GECINA) and, more recently, LE NOBLE AGE, a small listed company Homes (nursing homes).

ORNANE means "Bonds redeemable in cash and / or Existing Shares and / or created. The acronym and the title somewhat pompous, and indeed quite daunting for the investor-covers, in fact, a convertible bonds (CBs), with an option given to the issuer to repay the bonds when they conversion or in shares (Which is the normal rule for convertible bonds) or, in part, in cash, to reduce shareholder dilution.

This option is not, frankly, a complete novation because it had already been introduced in oceans of type "swap".

In ORNANE recently issued the option was, in fact, specified as follows, in case of request for conversion of OC:
-either a refund in shares of OC, which is the normal rule is
- settlement in cash the par value of OC and the balance in shares
To illustrate this branch of the option, say the issuer has issued an SO to 125 while its share price was 100 (premium of 25%) and that it is 150 at the time of application for conversion: the transmitter can then repay 125 (the nominal OC) in cash and the remaining 25 (150-125) in shares.
shareholder dilution and may vary between 25 and 150, is from 1 to 7 after the option is exercised or not.

interest, obviously, such an option is to reduce the dilution, in time, for a refund in cash. Note that the values for liquids such results can be obtained by repurchases shares and / or surrender of existing shares. This option is not harmful for institutional investors in OC because generally they do not want or can not hold the shares and prefer to sell rather than the OC conversion, which is financially equivalent.

Using this option, LE NOBLE AGE, which has a market capitalization of EUR 130 million, issued a EUR 65 million Convertible Bonds, which is substantial, in relative value, and highly likely to dilute existing shareholders. Le Noble Age has certainly been hoping to play at maturity, the option of a cash refund This led him to issue a large, relative to its market capitalization, but ensuring a minimum liquidity to this line of OC for investors (50 million euros is a minimorum, EUR 100 million is better).

If we are convinced that long-standing interest in this refund option in cash, we're not fans of the presentation and structure ORNANE.

The Convertible Bonds is a structure, yet remained confidential, and that, therefore, tends to elicit from the outset because of his "cloak" of perplexity and distrust on the part of investors , shy away from innovation, since the crisis subprime.Il enough yet to say that it is a convertible bond with an option of repayment in cash, and would be both simpler and more enlightening.

Moreover, the option to cash refund can be modulated to gain a more flexible by the issuer when it binary - all or nothing - in the structure ORNANE: either cash refund of the full nominal issuance (65 million euros in the broadcast outlet for example) or return "normal" actions.

must beware of "ornans" and a temptation to innovation for innovation, out of season, not forgetting, already an important lesson from the subprime crisis: the simplicity of presentation and understanding. This is particularly important with regard to market operations. That's why a more simple and more illuminating would be welcome.

View features of the Convertible Bonds Le Noble Age related:
http://www.obliginfos.fr/2011/02/17/admission-des-orane-le-noble-age-2016-ornane-fr0004170017 -fr0011005446 /

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Monday, February 28, 2011

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Sunday, February 27, 2011

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The hedging airlines

Kerosene constitutes a major cost for airlines that have got used to hedge (hedging) through derivatives markets against unforeseen developments in oil prices. This is an important part of the business relationship with investment banks such customers.

The graph above, taken from the FT and research at Morgan Stanley, is interesting because it shows that the coverage of needs (ie for the year 2011) is partial and, especially, following the uneven regions of the world: more important in Europe, where it is around 60% elsewhere, where it ranges between 25 and 35%.

Saturday, February 26, 2011

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Super Mario favorite to succeed JC Trichet?

After deletion of Axel Weber, the German candidate, Mario Draghi, Governor of the Bank of Italy and Chairman of the Financial Stability Board (FSB), became the favorite for the very heavy estate of Jean-Claude Trichet as head of the ECB, in the autumn. Mario Draghi, nicknamed "Super Mario", will, however, yet to defeat his two handicaps: a brief stint at Goldman Sachs, having been Director of the Italian Treasury, before becoming the Governor of the Central Bank of the country and be Italian not from a country "more virtuous" in Northern Europe. This is probably unacceptable if one believes the tone of the very interesting portrait that just made the Spiegel, overall very positive (see link in English):
-Linked Article-portrait of Spiegel:

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Glencore, the IPO of the century in Europe

Glencore is a name little known outside insider. Yet it is a giant commodities trading, not hesitating to invest around the world. The firm, based in the Swiss canton of Zug, was established by the sulfur trader Marc Rich. Today a partnership, which has said it was the "Goldman Sachs" of its activities. It is a partner and a very important customer investment banks active in the commodities sector and mining.

very committed to the discretion, Glencore has yet to decide to go public, what should be done in the second quarter, the London Stock Exchange. The company is valued at approximately USD 60 billion. It should merge with the mining group Xstrata, which it already controls, which should increase the value of total around 100 billion USD. This is a huge IPO, the largest in Europe, from large privatization.

Why Glencore has decided to rate? i) to maximize flexibility and be able, like its competitors, "paying paper" acquisitions (eg for the likely merger with Xstrata) ii) to enable partners to liquefy a heritage become significant.

An important consequence will be to acknowledge again the component raw materials "from the London Stock Exchange and FTSE, which already includes giants like BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, Anglo American, Xstrata and others.

We therefore read with interest, linked along "report" that Reuters has just devoted to Glencore, and at least the post's comments Reuters blogger, Felix Slamon.

-Felix Salmon's comments
http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/02/25/why-glencores-going-public/

-Reuters Report on the Glencore:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/02/25/uk-glencore-idUKTRE71O1AX20110225?pageNumber=1

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The United States again at the forefront of IPO

The article in the WSJ link underlines the dynamism of the U.S. market in IPO, which regained the lead on Asia who became the new location of choice for two years. There has been 24 IPOs since the beginning of the year United States and the pipeline is well stocked, with particularly strong buzz in the tech sector and internet

Friday, February 25, 2011

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The winners of the French banks by the level of their profits

This chart is very telling of Figaro. BNP Paribas dominates the pack in terms of profits as net banking income (NBI), the total income of banks. Societe Generale is No. 2 in profits but No. 3 in GNP behind Credit Agricole. BPCE glued to the pack.
We read more comments in the article in Figaro link under the pen Isabelle Chaperon, specialist, long date, the banking sector.
Linked:
-section of Le Figaro
http://www.lefigaro.fr/societes/2011/02/24/04015-20110224ARTFIG00716-la-hierarchie-des-banques-francaises-bouleversee.php
-AFP dispatch read as the health of French banks:
http://www.boursorama.com/infos/actualites/detail_actu_marches.phtml?num=e019fe2ccd8c142fb000ce4d08b080a1

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

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An update on the reform of financial regulation and the shadow banking "

The Council of Financial Stability ( FSB), which is chaired by Mario Draghi, as usual before a summit of the G20, has recently published a report (10 pages) to a point on the state reform of financial regulation: Bâle3 and implementation of various new ratios (capital, liquidity, leverage), the OTC derivatives market reform, accounting standards ...

A new topic of reform was put on the agenda of this Council, which serves as secretariat for the G20 issues of financial regulation: the "shadow banking".

The "shadow banking" has played, in fact, a major role in the subprime crisis. Yet the reform of the U.S. regulatory site Dodd-Frank do there is little interest (but Bâle3 a little more), leaving widely unregulated. That is why the FSB was seized of the matter.

The rise of "shadow banking" has taken place over the last three decades, especially in the USA, without one there pays much attention. Besides, he was named thus for the first time only in 2007 by Paul Mac Culley of PIMCO. It was largely because the banks putting assets off balance sheet (off balance sheet) using various techniques, including securitization (CDOs, ABS, ABCP ...) and special purpose vehicles (SPVs).

Only with the crisis that we became aware of its magnitude and the fact that in 2007 the assets of the "shadow banking" amount had exceeded those in the banking world "regulated" (see chart below from a study of the New York Fed). In other words, the economy and U.S. companies had become increasingly financed by the "shadow banking" by traditional financial channels.

is contained in the link:
-route point of the Financial Stability Board
http://www.financialstabilityboard.org/publications/r_110219.pdf
-A recent study by two researchers at Yale School of Management "Regulating the shadow banking" in July 2010:
C: \\ Users \\ vincent \\ Documents \\ book IBK \\ SSRN-Regulating the Shadow Banking System by Gary Gorton, Andrew Metrick.mht

Monday, February 21, 2011

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The hedge fund industry in Brazil

Hedge funds are not the preserve of Anglo-Saxon. They have grown significantly in Brazil in recent years - just like private equity - fueled by the desire to diversify and hedge the strong local industry pension funds (see previous post on pension funds in the world). These hedge funds are based more in Rio while the financial center is Sao Paulo.
Read the article in The Economist Link:
http://www.economist.com/node/18178275

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The evolution of asset allocation for institutional investors worldwide

This graphic research of JP Morgan, alleging Business Insider, shows the evolution of asset allocation for institutional investors since 1989, from equities, fixed income and cash . Two major features: the importance of the cash position and the sharp decline in the equity component.
post
Linked Business Insider:

Saturday, February 19, 2011

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The cost to income ratio of investment banks



In paper presentations on its results, BNP Paribas provides for 2010, this graphic comparison of operating ratios (cost to income ratio) of investment banking activities, ie the proportion of revenue represented by the costs. These costs are known, are represented in 2 / 3 per pay.
This indicator is intended as a measure of operational efficiency the bank. Nevertheless, it is to be used with caution because the cost to income ratio will depend product mix of each investment bank. Some activities, such as brokerage or corporate finance have a high cost to income ratio because it's all about "people business" but using little capital and can be very profitable. In contrast to market activities and structured finance have operating ratios much lower but are heavy users of capital. This explains, in addition to good management, low operating rate of the two banks françaises.C is also explains that one can have, such as Credit Suisse, a high operating ratio from along with high profitability (see the graphs of a previous post: http://investmentbankerparis.blogspot.com/2011/02/profitabilite-et-profits-des-grandes.html )

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The weight of pension funds

The consultant Towers Watson assesses the amount managed by pension funds about $ 30 trillion, 85% concentrated in 13 countries.
The above graph from The Economist expresses the weight of pension funds as a proportion of GDP countries concerned. The Netherlands topped the list (134%) followed by Switzerland and the United States. In amounts managed, it is the United States, of course, shows the highest (15.3 trillion USD), followed by Japan (3.5) and the United Kingdom (2.3).

Linked:
- the comment from The Economist:
-
our previous post on the main actors of institutional savings:
http://investmentbankerparis.blogspot.com/2011/02 / the great-actor-of-lepargne.html

Friday, February 18, 2011

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Valuation stock market investment banks

This graphic from The Economist, which questions the value of the investment banks under their new prospects ROE, shows the multiple changes in their action / net assets (book value). As can be seen these multiples, they have recovered, ranged between 0.9 and 1.5, below pre-crisis levels.



Linked article from The Economist ("The big squeeze"):

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income mix NYE Euronext / Deutsche Börse

This graph, taken from the FT day and from a search of Morgan Stanley, illuminates the income mix of NYSE Euronext Deutsche Boerse.
As can be seen in the derivatives business-clearing is the main ingredient (37%) very much to the traditional business of listing and trading of shares "cash" (29%).
This component derivatives and clearing is expected to grow with the reform of the derivatives markets CTA (see previous post http://investmentbankerparis.blogspot.com/2011/02/les-bourses-en-fusion.html ) which aim i) to extend the Clearing (clearing) markets OTC derivatives and ii) to direct some to organized markets. This is a major driver of this consolidation.